December 2008
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Michael Burleigh
Georgia
Sunday 10th August 2008
George Kennan once said that 'Russia wants only enemies and vassals on its borders'. The Olympic Games have provided the distraction that the old Soviet Union used to find at Christmas, a bit like Hitler always invading places on Saturdays. The Russian FSB petrostate has been bullying Georgia for years, just as Georgia itself has been bullying Abkhazia and South Ossetia, many of whose inhabitants wish to be associated with Russia. The bigger picture is dominated by a Russian sense of bad faith. Earlier in the year I heard Richard Pipes speaking in Washington. As a former advisor to Ronald Reagan, and I believe the man who coined the phrase 'evil empire', Pipes is no softy. Yet he said that there had been a deal between Clinton and Yeltsin that the West would not expand NATO into Russia's self-proclaimed 'near abroad' and that it is the West which has acted in bad faith by at least toying with the idea of advancing it to Georgia and Ukraine on the grounds that Russia is no longer NATO's enemy. The Russians are also deeply suspicious of the anti-missile defence shield being created to protect us from Iran. Meanwhile Russia's armed forces demonstrate their customary finesse on various Georgian cities.
12:01 pm
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COMMENTS
Justin Marozzi
August 11th, 2008
8:08 AM
8:08 AM
In terms of political leadership, brinkmanship and the ability to becalm the situation, the combination of Saakashvili and Putin does not inspire terrific confidence. No doubt the UN Security Council will put a swift end to the hostilities.
jlinville
August 11th, 2008
12:08 PM
12:08 PM
Dear Mr. Marozzi,
I'm impressed by your confidence in the UN security Council's handling the matter.
I'm curious how you think veto-wielding member Russia will vote.
As a back-up, let's hope that China will step in and assert their considerable moral authority.
JSL
mburleigh
August 11th, 2008
1:08 PM
1:08 PM
Exactly JM. Lots of macho posturing down there, although I stress this is not a part of the world I know about. I merely floated Pipes's surprising comments. Funny how we are not getting the 'its all about oil' song from the usual suspects. Seems to me there are better ways of deterring Iran from attacking Israel, than this missile shield, starting with gasoline sanctions, and then an unambiguous guarantee that the US and EU will hit Iran with everything they've got if Iran threatens her.
Otockfield
August 12th, 2008
12:08 PM
12:08 PM
Oh dear, perhaps MB's is not a response to mine... or is it really that hard to convey irony over the net?
As for JM's dreamy assurance that the UN will put a swift end to hostilities, it is in line with Senator Obama's call for a UN Security Council mandate, and dispatch of peace-keepers.
Of course, Russia, a permanent member of that security council, would veto any such mandate.
No?
Sometime I think you Europeans have a simplistic and naive faith in legalism, multi-lateralism, and transnational bodies.
Since you mention Iran, yes, I do hope the multi-lateral talks initiated by Britain, France, and Germany are successful in getting Iran to agree not to pursue a nuclear weapons program. How have those talks been going?
Vernon Howell
August 12th, 2008
3:08 PM
3:08 PM
The funny thing is that before Russia sent in the big guns they actually went to the UN and tabled a motion calling for a ceasefire. From a Reuters report:
At the request of Russia, the U.N. Security Council held an emergency session in New York but failed to reach consensus early Friday on a Russian-drafted statement.
The council concluded it was at a stalemate after the United States, Britain and some other members backed the Georgians in rejecting a phrase in the three-sentence draft statement that would have required both sides “to renounce the use of force,” council diplomats said.
But it was the UK & the US who rejected it, apparently. Perhaps Bush wanted to give his ally a chance to grab back S. Ossetia. If so, that was an extremely stupid mistake to make.
Well it's sort of all over now.
Will
August 12th, 2008
8:08 PM
8:08 PM
Well, this strikes me as Russia's payback for Kossovo. Now that we're even, let's calm things down and move forward. Michael is right to note that Georgia stirred the pot first and neither side has clean hands.
The US and the West generally stands in a position similar to that facing Pitt the Younger when he confronted Catherine the great over Russian attempts to coerce the Ottoman Turks during the Ochakov crisis. The Royal Navy could do little, and diplomatic and commercial pressure even less. So Pitt backed down and the conflict passed without any major shifts in the geopolitical balance.
Of course, there's a danger that a regional conflict can draw in great powers or become a diplomatic test of manhood from which leaders think they cannot backdown. But this usually happens by choice rather than design. August 1914 provides the relevant case, but nobody is reckless enough to roll Bismarck's iron dice in that fashion again.
mburleigh
August 13th, 2008
9:08 AM
9:08 AM
Otockfield- I wasn't responding to you since there wasn't a post to respond to. Its the technology. I agree about the naive faith in multilateralism by the way. As far as I know, the talks with Iran have gone nowhere. They haven't responded to the deal on the table. Stringing along seems most apt to describe this process. The only sanction which will really bite, since they've repatriated their money from Europe already, is to stop them accessing gasoline. Apparently the oil they produce is too thick, while their refining capacity is antiquated and poor. Thank you Will for the long view. Your post reminded me of Lermontov's books on the Caucasus.
jlinville
August 14th, 2008
11:08 AM
11:08 AM
Will, that seems very hopeful of you to see this conflict as over. I suspect Russia's intent is not merely to establish its near-abroad zone, but to make the oil pipleline that runs from Azerbaijan through Georgia then through Turkey to the sea untenable. In sum to assert a grip over all oil and gas flowing emerging from central asia. We've seen how they've used natural gas price to manipulate the politics in Ukraine.
jlinville
August 16th, 2008
12:08 PM
12:08 PM
Re: hopefulness, shortly before World War I, Norman Angell, published “The Great Illusion,” in which he argued that war had become obsolete, that in the modern era even military victors lose more than they gain. Angell was right on the later count, but sadly wrong about war's obsolescence.
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